Match/mismatch of life-history phenology and dynamics of trophic modules:

Toward understanding the community consequences under climate change

Takefumi Nakazawa

Accumulating studies have shown that climate change has for decades advanced or delayed various biological events in a species-specific manner, suggesting that climate change may have significant community consequences. In this article, we describe that such phenological data should be at the behavioral level (i.e., in terms of life-history phenology rather than population abundance phenology) if we are to understand the mechanisms underlying climate-induced community responses, to develop process-based theoretical models for applied use, and to predict the ripple effects within and across communities. We also propose a trophic module-based approach as an initial step for exploring community consequences of phenological match/mismatch among interacting species. Our preliminary results suggest that species-specific phenological shifts determine key dynamical features (e.g., trophic cascade, competitive hierarchy, and species coexistence) depending on the module structure. We believe that climate change biology can be more ecological by taking into account life-history phenology and interaction topology on a finer scale.